Climate change in Canada: practical impacts and household preparedness

In this article

Canada on the Front Line
Temperatures: Current data
Rising seas and coastal flooding
Changes in water supply
Extreme weather and forest fires
Climate change and household preparedness
Sources
Frequently asked questions

Climate change is often described as a future phenomenon. Observations from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) also show changes that can already be measured: temperatures, precipitation, snow and ice are changing. Several of these changes affect the risks addressed by household preparedness, including heat, some types of flooding and conditions favourable to wildfires. This guide retains the historical reference points from 2024 and 2025, identifying their periods. It distinguishes observations, projections and actions to take at home.

Canada on the Front Line

Canada is warming rapidly. Canada's Changing Climate Report 2026 indicates that, since 1970, Canada has warmed nearly twice as fast as the global average, and the Canadian Arctic nearly three times as fast. This comparison of rates depends on the period and area examined; it should not automatically be applied to every city or confused with a single year's temperature anomaly. The historical bulletins below use their own national series beginning in 1948.

Key figures — ECCC, Annual Bulletin 2024

Average national temperature 2024: +3.0 °C above reference average 1961-1990
Winter 2023–2024: +5.2 °C — the warmest winter since nationwide records began in 1948
Winter 2024-2025: +3.7 °C — 5th warmest winter since 1948
77-year trend (1948-2024): average annual temperatures increased by +2.1 °C at national level
Three regions experienced their warmest year in 2024: Great Lakes/St. Lawrence, Northeastern Forest and Atlantic Canada

Globally, 2024 was the warmest year in the record presented by international organizations, with an annual average more than 1.5 °C above 1850–1900. A single-year exceedance does not itself mean that the Paris Agreement’s long-term threshold has been crossed. In January 2026, the World Meteorological Organization ranked 2025 among the three warmest years and 2015–2025 as the eleven warmest years.

For household preparedness, these trends justify reviewing power outage, flood, fire and heat scenarios. Hazards do not all increase in the same way everywhere: changes depend on the phenomenon, location, infrastructure and exposure. An increase in risk does not predict the date of the next disaster. Consulting local assessments helps households plan proportionately rather than assume that every event will worsen in the same way.

To explore climate projections specific to your region: Climate Atlas of Canada.

Temperatures: Current data

In the 2024 annual bulletin, all eleven Canadian climate regions show positive annual trends over 1948–2024. The largest is in the Mackenzie District, at +2.9 °C, and the smallest in Atlantic Canada, at +1.3 °C. These are trends over a period, distinct from departures observed during 2024 alone.

Winters

Where warming is most pronounced

Winters are warming, but a seasonal average does not describe every episode. ECCC indicators give winter warming of approximately 3.7 °C over 1948–2024, depending on the series used. Freezing rain requires a particular combination of temperatures aloft and at ground level: milder conditions do not automatically mean more freezing rain everywhere. Freeze–thaw cycles, ice loads and cold spells still need to be considered when maintaining buildings and utility networks.

Drought

Drought and heat stress

Canadian summers have also warmed. The historical reference of approximately +1.7 °C in the series for this period must be read with its period and method, rather than as a forecast for next summer. Heat, evaporation, precipitation and soil conditions interact: some areas may experience a water deficit between rains without every summer becoming uniformly drier. For households, anticipating cooling needs and local water restrictions is more useful than drawing conclusions about their situation from a national average.

For a prepared household, this means adapting equipment to both extremes: backup heating for winter power outages and preparation for prolonged heat waves, whose health impacts can be as severe as those of cold.

Rising seas and coastal flooding

The rise in sea level is the most certain climatic effect — and the least reversible in the short term. It results from two combined phenomena: the thermal expansion of the oceans (water expands by heating up) and the melting of glaciers and polar caps.

Updated projections — IPCC 6th report / Copernicus

By 2050: the IPCC projects a global mean rise of 15–23 cm under the very low emissions scenario SSP1-1.9, and 20–29 cm under the very high emissions scenario SSP5-8.5, relative to 1995–2014. These ranges therefore do not describe an additional rise starting when this article is read. They overlap substantially over this time horizon, but emissions choices have a greater influence on the subsequent trajectory.
By 2100: the change depends strongly on the scenario and location. For a global comparison, the IPCC gives 28–55 cm under SSP1-1.9 and 63–101 cm under SSP5-8.5, relative to 1995–2014. One metre may be used in some coastal planning exercises, but it is not a single forecast applicable across Atlantic Canada. Consult regional projections, including their vertical reference and uncertainty range.
Canada’s Atlantic coast, Beaufort Sea and Greater Vancouver face different coastal issues. Relative sea level depends on land movement, tides and storm surges; erosion and waves may worsen impacts. Use local projections specifying their scenario, period and method, together with official maps, rather than applying one maximum to every coast.
Vancouver and the British Columbia coast: provincial documents have used a planning allowance of one metre by 2100. This type of assumption supports the design of structures or land uses with a margin; it does not replace a site assessment or applicable municipal requirements. Check the documents currently in force before purchasing property, building or undertaking protective works.

For many inland areas of Quebec, the immediate concerns are river flooding, intense rainfall and urban drainage. Warming can change the timing of snowmelt and rain-on-snow events; changes in the frequency of spring flooding nevertheless remain complex and uncertain between watersheds. Global mean sea level does not directly determine the flood elevation of a property near the St. Lawrence River.

How to prepare: Identify your local flood risk using the available maps, then develop an appropriate evacuation plan. Consult regional flood resources: Climate Central (interactive map) and the Government of Canada — disasters.

Changes in water supply

The effects of climate change on fresh water in Canada are more complex than drought alone or an increase in precipitation. Changes affect seasonal distribution, quality and availability.

Across Canada, annual precipitation has increased over several decades, with substantial regional differences. The 2026 Canadian report also identifies changes in the water cycle: more rain rather than snow under some conditions, evaporation and seasonal changes in streamflow. A higher annual total can coexist with local water shortages between showers. In Quebec, check watershed observations, forecasts and municipal instructions. Do not generalize a dry summer or rainy spring observed in one region to the entire south of the country.

How to prepare: collecting rainwater can provide non-potable water for certain permitted outdoor uses. It complements an approach that also includes stored drinking water, reduced losses and monitoring of restrictions. A roof can introduce microbiological and chemical contaminants: do not turn this water into a drinking supply based solely on a filter's promise. Follow local rules, prevent cross-connections with the drinking water system and have any proposed treatment system for consumption assessed.

Common storage options:

55-US-gallon barrels, approximately 208 litres: choose a container suited to the intended use and with a known history. A former chemical drum does not become safe through a simple rinse. Install a lid and mosquito protection, controlled overflow and a stable base. A full barrel weighs more than 200 kg; do not assume barrels can be stacked without a structure designed for that load.
Cisterns of 1,000–5,000 US gallons, approximately 3,785–18,925 litres: these volumes may suit some rural or suburban projects after checking space, loads, freezing conditions and local requirements. Provide safe access, overflow management and maintenance. A buried installation or one connected to a building requires appropriate design; the volume available does not establish potability.
Rain gardens and native vegetation: they can slow runoff and encourage infiltration where the soil and site layout allow. Direct water away from foundations and account for buried utilities, wells and septic systems. A rain garden alone does not guarantee measurable groundwater recharge or prevention of every flood.

Rainwater barrel

Affiliate links. Check the model, dimensions and operating requirements; a product name does not establish suitability for your circumstances.

Canada — Amazon.ca

Good Ideas RB55-BLUE Big Blue Baril de pluie recyclé, 180 litresView on Amazon.ca

In rural areas, planting native vegetation instead of conventional lawns reduces water use and improves soil water retention — a measure that supports both environmental care and water self-reliance.

Extreme weather and forest fires

In this category, recent data are particularly striking and directly relevant to household preparedness in Canada.

Wildfires: a documented increase

Recent data — Natural Resources Canada / CIFFC / SOPFEU

2023: a record year for area burned in Canadian series. The figure of 16.5 million hectares, widely circulated in seasonal reports, is not interchangeable with revised estimates: ECCC's indicator gives approximately 17.6 million hectares. Records can be adjusted as fire perimeters are consolidated. To compare years, keep to one series rather than mix provisional and final estimates.
2024: Natural Resources Canada’s national report records 5,844 fires and approximately 5.37 million hectares burned. The area remains substantial despite a fire count below the report’s 25-year average. Fire count, burned area and human impacts are different indicators; any ranking must identify its series and period.
2025: the federal October 30 release reported more than 6,000 fires and over 8.3 million hectares burned. CNFDB point data consulted on November 10, 2026 list 6,199 fires and 8,426,718 hectares. ECCC’s 2025 weather summary gives approximately 8.9 million hectares. Do not mix these publications and series: specify the dataset, date and possible revisions before comparing figures.
The years 2023 and 2024 strongly affect recent averages of burned area. To measure their contribution, use one data series, define the included periods and account for revisions. A calculated share depends on the extraction date; a national average cannot by itself describe next summer’s risk in a municipality.
Evacuations: the earlier compilation compared an annual average of 55,366 people in 2015–2024 with 11,896 in 2005–2014. These historical values need their source, definition and method before they support a precise comparison: unique people, evacuation episodes and evacuation orders are not equivalent. The practical need remains to plan reception, medication, animals and transport, including when an alert originates from a distant fire.
Quebec 2024: SOPFEU reports 352 fires and approximately 13,884 hectares burned in the intensive protection zone, or 100 fewer fire starts than its ten-year average of 452. This area is not all of Quebec: the northern zone experienced 166 fires and approximately 177,306 hectares burned according to the same report. Always specify the zone before comparing these values with the Canadian total or another year.

Fires can smoulder in organic material, survive winter and become active again. Often called overwintering or zombie fires, they existed before 2023. Any count must specify its date and geographic scope. Follow fire-service restrictions and notices: do not approach a burned area to look for a fire yourself.

Other extreme weather events

Extreme rainfall, flash floods, freezing rain, winter storms and tornadoes do not all follow the same trend. Canada's climate report distinguishes phenomena with robust projections from those whose evolution remains more uncertain or regional. All can nevertheless disrupt electricity networks, roads or water services. Preparing for their shared consequences remains useful while avoiding automatic attribution of every event to climate change alone.

How to prepare:

Identify the main weather-related risks in your area using Environment Canada resources and municipal emergency plans: canada.ca — climate change
Assess backup power according to your needs: batteries for essential devices, solar power with suitable storage, or a generator if your home permits safe use. A fuel-burning generator must operate only outdoors, away from openings in accordance with applicable instructions and rules, never in a garage. Provide carbon monoxide alarms and a compliant electrical connection; do not feed electricity into the home through a wall outlet. Expensive equipment is not a prerequisite for preparedness.
Maintain gutters and drainage to limit damage during heavy showers
In areas at risk of fire, clear the immediate perimeter of the home of plant debris and flammable materials (FireSmart program)

Climate change and household preparedness

Climate change alters several familiar risks — heat, fires and some floods — and can shift their season, intensity or distribution. It can also create new combinations for an area, such as heat and smoke during a power outage. Reviewing an existing plan therefore means examining interactions and the people exposed, without assuming that every hazard evolves uniformly.

Priority 1

Water and food

Seasonal water availability and possible contamination of wells or networks during flooding reinforce the value of a supply of water that is already safe to drink. Any supplementary treatment device must be selected for the contaminants concerned, taking account of its limits and maintenance. Neither a household filter nor boiling establishes that chemically contaminated water is safe. Follow drinking water and do-not-use advisories.

Priority 2

Energy and heating

Freezing rain and storms can cause long outages, whose duration also depends on network damage and repair crews' access. Plan clothing, blankets, a room where the household can gather and a heated alternative location. Backup energy can complement this plan if it suits the home, devices and budget. Never use a barbecue or fuel-burning camping equipment as indoor heating.

Priority 3

Evacuation plan

Wildfire evacuations highlight the importance of a family plan: possible alternative routes, a meeting place, an out-of-area contact and assistance for people who do not drive. A ratio between two evacuation averages is neither an individual probability nor a projection. Follow current instructions when choosing actual routes.

The essential point: adapting preparedness to the climate means reviewing your household's concrete needs and local scenarios. A kit for the first 72 hours is a starting point, not a guarantee that services will resume. A one- to two-week supply may be a gradual goal for some exposed households, depending on space, budget and local recommendations; it is not a universal threshold. Alongside quantities, include an alternative accommodation plan, communications and mutual-aid arrangements, because some events make staying home impossible.

Sources

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). (2025). Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin — Annual 2024. canada.ca
ECCC. (2025). Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin — Winter 2024-2025. canada.ca
ECCC. (2025). Environmental Indicators: Changes in Temperature in Canada. canada.ca
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). (2025). State of the Global Climate 2024. Cited by Radio-Canada, January 11, 2025.
Canadian Climate Institute. (2025). Fact sheet: climate change and wildfires. institutclimatique.ca
Library of Parliament. (2025). Wildfire management in Canada: statistical overview and jurisdictions. notesdelacolline.ca
SOPFEU. (2025). 2024 season statistics. sopfeu.qc.ca
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). (2025). National wildland fire situation report 2025. cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca
Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). (2024). Sea level and oceans: increase and projections. marine.copernicus.eu
CLIMAtlantic / NCCSE. (2024). Sea level rise — Atlantic Canada. climatlantic.ca
NCCEH. (2024). Overview of Canadian communities exposed to rising ocean levels. ccnse.ca
Climate Atlas of Canada. atlasclimatique.ca

Audited supplements for this revision: Canada's Changing Climate Report 2026 ; IPCC, AR6 synthesis report ; Historical fire data ; Fire smoke: health protection ; WMO assessment of 2025. The historical documents cited above remain identified as such; uncertain figures are reported in the text rather than reaffirmed.

Frequently asked questions

Is Quebec particularly affected by climate change relative to the rest of Canada?

Quebec is experiencing significant changes, but it is not necessarily the Canadian region most affected for every indicator. The 2024 bulletin records annual highs in the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence region (+2.9 °C relative to 1961–1990) and Northeastern Forest (+3.4 °C). These climate regions extend beyond Quebec's administrative boundaries. Milder winters change the balance between rain and snow; freezing rain risk also depends on the atmosphere's temperature profile. The 2023 fires severely affected some Quebec regions. Consult data for the area where you live rather than infer your exposure from a single regional record.

Is Montreal likely to be flooded by rising sea levels?

For Montréal, flood priorities are river flooding and intense rainfall exceeding drainage capacity, rather than directly applying global mean sea level rise. The city lies well within the river system; local hydrological conditions and structures must be assessed. Nevertheless, avoid an absolute guarantee based only on distance from the coast. Check official maps, municipal notices, basement vulnerability and evacuation routes for the property concerned.

How does climate change affect drinking water quality?

Flooding can contaminate wells and water intakes; low flows and heat can also change water quality. Cyanobacteria are a particular risk in some bodies of water. A do-not-drink advisory is not automatically resolved by boiling, tablets or a portable filter: these methods do not address the same contaminants and may be inadequate against certain toxins or chemicals. Store water already safe to drink and follow the health advisory. A brand mentioned in a comparison, such as Berkey or LifeStraw, does not replace checking the exact model's performance and limitations.

Is smoke from forest fires a health risk to be anticipated in preparation?

Yes. Smoke can travel long distances, as during the 2023 episodes, and affect a household far from the fire. Preparing a cleaner-air room and a filtration device suited to its volume can reduce exposure. Outdoors, a well-fitting N95 or equivalent respirator can reduce particle inhalation without protecting against every gas. P100 filters also serve a defined purpose with an appropriate device and fit. Do not indiscriminately seal the home or shut down every system: follow ventilation and fuel-burning appliance recommendations. If heat and smoke coincide, avoid overheating and plan a cooler place with cleaner air. These public health measures do not turn a home into a sealed NBC/CBRN shelter.

How do I assess climate risks specific to my region in Quebec?

Three complementary resources help identify regional risks: the Climate Atlas of Canada (atlasclimatique.ca) offers interactive regional projections for temperatures, precipitation and extreme events; SOPFEU's website (sopfeu.qc.ca) provides regional fire danger levels; and the municipality's emergency plan — available on its website — identifies locally prioritized risks and available emergency resources. Combining these three sources helps tailor household preparedness to the actual risks of the area where you live.